We are fully invested in stocks with accelerating earnings and sales, many of which are trending higher and benefiting from powerful secular themes. One such driver is the massive $7 trillion sitting in money markets, also known as “dry powder,” which could be rotated into equities and further fuel this bull market.

Artificial Intelligence is transforming the world at a rapid pace. Once you see the impact, you can’t unsee it. From robots to autonomous driving, the AI revolution is real—and we are ready. Our portfolio is concentrated in stocks tied to the AI data center buildout, which stands to benefit from continued innovation, automation, and rising productivity.

Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have broken out to all-time highs on relatively strong volume, especially impressive considering the shortened holiday week. The passage of Trump’s budget bill removed a key political overhang, adding to market confidence. While some “sell the news” profit-taking may occur, any pullback could present a healthy buying opportunity.

July has historically been one of the best months for the market, especially in the first year after a presidential election. Junk bonds also sit at all-time highs, signaling a clear risk-on environment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar just bounced off strong support, holding its lowest level since December 29, 2023. If the dollar strengthens, we could see pressure on oil and gold. Bonds remain in a trading range as markets await the Fed’s next rate cut. Should the Fed lower rates as expected, we believe both stocks and bonds could respond positively. Enjoy the ride while it lasts. Grace & Peace!

Watch List: APH, AS, AVGO, AXON, CELH, CLS, CRDO, CRS, CYBR, DAVE, ESLT, GEV, HNGE, KD, KLAC, MIR, MTZ, NFG, NWG, PGY, PLTR, PWR, QTWO, ROAD, TKO, VIK, VRT.

May the Lord give strength to his people! May the Lord bless his people with Peace! Psalm 29:11

We are fully invested and expect the markets to head higher as the NASDAQ and S&P 500 break out to new all-time highs on rising volume. There’s nothing more bullish than new highs supported by above-average volume! Our portfolio is centered around the AI boom, a transformational trend that’s reshaping how we live, work, and play. If AI continues growing as we believe, our investments should benefit substantially.

Last week, the Semiconductor Index (SMH) broke out to new all-time highs on strong volume, signaling that institutional investors are pouring money into this space. Just as a strong transportation average historically signaled a healthy economy, SMH is now the new “transportation average” for this AI-driven economy. This breakout reinforces my conviction to actively manage the portfolio, trimming underperformers and adding to our strongest positions.

The market has successfully absorbed recent shocks, such as the DeepSeek incident and the tariff tantrum. Investors are now looking forward to what could be a “golden age” of generational prosperity. If you’re not confident in this market now, when will you ever be? After all, have you ever met a successful pessimist?

There’s still an estimated $7.25 trillion sitting in money market funds—fuel for this bull market. As sidelined investors capitulate, whether driven by FOMO or political bias, we could see a “lockout rally”, where stocks surge as investors scramble to get back in. We plan to fully participate in this move.

Adding further confirmation, the 50-day moving average (50-DMA) is about to cross above the rising 200-day moving average (200-DMA)—a “golden cross” widely regarded as a signal that a bull market is in its early stages, not the end. Frankly, if I had a margin account, I’d use it!

Meanwhile, oil prices have declined, suggesting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased. The dollar is weakening, and gold prices are pulling back—possibly reflecting reduced demand for safety trades now that risks like Iran’s nuclear threat have been neutralized. As inflation cools, money is shifting out of inflation hedges, such as gold, and back into growth-oriented stocks.

Finally, deregulation is unlocking the gears of capitalism, and a dovish Federal Reserve is providing fertile ground for continued innovation in AI, semiconductors, and electric vehicles. The backdrop is as constructive as it gets.

We remain bullish and ready. Let’s make it count!   Grace and peace to all.

Watch List: APH, AS, AVGO, AXON, CELH, CLS, CRDO, CRS, CYBR, DAVE, ESLT, GEV, HNGE, KD, KLAC, MIR, MTZ, NFG, NWG, PGY, PLTR, PWR, ROAD, TKO, VIK, VRT.

May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace in believing, so that by the power of the Holy Spirit you may abound in hope. Romans 15:13

We remain fully invested in growth stocks with strong fundamentals and constructive chart patterns, positioning us well to perform in the current environment. Investor sentiment appears optimistic, with high-yield (junk) bonds reaching record highs, suggesting a healthy risk appetite.

Given that backdrop, we believe the uptrends in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are likely to continue, potentially surpassing their all-time highs, which are now just about 3% away. While media headlines may suggest uncertainty, price action tells a different story. The market reflects all known information, and the price is always right.

Geopolitical developments continue to unfold. Recently, President Trump acted against Iran’s nuclear capabilities by targeting bomb-making facilities. Iran did not retaliate, and while futures markets initially reacted—index futures were slightly down, and oil was slightly up—we wouldn’t be surprised to see equities rebound and oil retreat by Monday’s close.

Although the Fed held rates steady this week, we anticipate a possible rate cut in July. Lower interest rates could catalyze a breakout above the current resistance level. Conversely, if tensions escalate and Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices could pose global economic risks. However, given Iran’s dependence on oil exports, we anticipate that diplomacy will prevail. The administration’s “peace through strength” approach could usher in stability not seen in decades.

Gold is in a strong uptrend, within 2% of its all-time high, and continues to serve as a hedge during times of uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is in a short-term downtrend. Currently, it is about 7% off its high, behaving more like a risk asset than a haven.

This environment favors active management and selective stock picking. We believe nimble, fundamentals-driven investors can outperform the broader indexes. Grace and peace to all.

Watch List: ALAB, APH, AVGO, AXON, CLS, CRS, CTAS, CVLT, CYBR, DAVE, EHC, ESLT, EXE, GEV, KD, KLAC, MIR, MTZ, NFG, NWG, PGY, PLTR, PWR, ROAD, RRC, UTI, VG, VRT, WPM.

Whatever you do, do it all for the glory of God. 1 Corinthians 10:31

We remain fully invested in stocks with strong fundamentals and bullish technical patterns, reflecting institutional accumulation. Despite heightened geopolitical tension from the Israel-Iran conflict, our charts still appear healthy, showing normal pullbacks. If the situation escalates and technical levels begin to break down, we are prepared to take swift action to protect capital and avoid significant losses.

Major indexes are flirting with all-time highs. Historically, highs tend to act like magnets, and while some consolidation or “back and fill” may be needed, the market appears determined to test those levels.

Last Friday, oil surged ~7% in response to the conflict. Interestingly, there was no corresponding flight to safety in the dollar or Treasury Bonds—both failed to rally. This disconnect is worth noting. A sustained rise in oil could pose a headwind for economic growth, potentially disrupting Trump’s economic agenda and weighing on risk assets.

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan is expected to do the same on Tuesday. However, the 20-year Treasury Bond dropped about 1% Friday, pushing yields higher. In past geopolitical threats, Treasuries rallied—this time, they didn’t. That suggests the market is more concerned about inflation than safety.

Gold responded as expected, rising toward all-time highs. Bitcoin, on the other hand, dropped around 1.5% on news of the war, showing that it wasn’t viewed as a haven in this environment. Junk bonds fell only slightly, suggesting investors still have some appetite for risk despite the headlines.  Grace and Peace to Everyone!

Watch List: AER, ALAB, APH, AVGO, AXON, CLS, CRDO, CRS, CTAS, CVLT, CYBR, DAVE, EHC, ESLT, GEV, MIR, MTZ, NFG, NWG, PGY, PLTR, PWR, ROAD, UTI, WPM.

Challenging Old Highs!

We remain fully invested in stocks with accelerating earnings and sales, supported by strong accumulation patterns on price charts. Our portfolio is well-positioned to benefit from the unfolding, multi-year AI investment theme. Software—our largest sector allocation—continues to show leadership, notably due to its limited exposure to tariffs.

As some positions become extended in price, we plan to trim selectively and rotate capital into high-quality stocks that break out from sound technical bases. Much of the bad news has been absorbed, and investor attention is now focused on the major indexes as they challenge their old highs.

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are both less than 2% off their all-time highs. A breakout could be imminent, potentially followed by a period of consolidation or “back and fill” action before the next leg higher. The upcoming budget bill—expected to pass before July 4th—and a possible Fed rate cut aimed at stimulating growth could provide additional fuel for the rally.

Walmart’s near-record-high trading levels suggest that recession fears are overblown. Brokerage stocks (IAI) are attempting to break out, signaling strong underlying market health. The U.S. dollar remains in a downtrend, while gold is near its highs and silver has broken out of a five-year base—signs of shifting macro sentiment.

MAG7 stocks appear poised for breakouts alongside the major indexes. Junk bonds (JNK) continue to trade sideways, indicating sustained risk appetite among investors. Chinese equities (FXI) are performing well, suggesting that trade tensions may be easing. Meanwhile, 20-year Treasury bonds are hovering near support, potentially setting the stage for lower yields ahead.

The AI revolution is real—driving innovation, breakthroughs, and long-term economic transformation. We believe this will be a powerful force lifting equity markets in the years ahead.

While we stay vigilant for any unforeseen “black swan” events, the market has shown impressive resilience, trading comfortably above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. If bond market support levels hold and yields decline, it would be constructive for both the economy and equities.

AI is a disruptor and a game-changer. If we remain open-minded and embrace this wave of innovation, we believe it will lead to a more prosperous future. Grace and Peace to Everyone!

Watch List: AER, ALAB, APH, APP, AVGO, AXON, BTSG, CHWY, CLS, CRDO, CRS, CTAS, CVLT, CVNA, CYBR, EHC, GEV, MTZ, NFG, NWG, PLTR, PWR, ROAD, SFM, TGLS, UTI, WPM.

Let all that you do be done in love. 1 Corinthians 16:14

If you know anyone who would like to receive these updates or invest, please contact me. 

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
35 Years of Actively Managing Risk!    

We remain fully invested in growth stocks with accelerating earnings and sales, as we anticipate a breakout from the current consolidation zone and a move toward new all-time highs—now less than 5% away. Market participants have already digested many of the “known unknowns,” such as tariffs, which appear to have lost their shock value. With institutional investors having priced in the DeepSeek developments and tariff-related concerns, we could now be poised for a meaningful upside.

The current technical setup in the S&P 500 mirrors the double-bottom base seen in 1998. Back then, a period of sideways consolidation gave way to a decisive breakout and new highs. While no historical precedent guarantees a repeat, these patterns offer a framework for setting expectations—history doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes.

Importantly, the S&P 500 broke above its 200-day moving average (200dma) on April 12 and held that level again on April 23, showing strong institutional support. This support at the 200-day moving average is a healthy and normal behavior in bull markets. As long as this level holds, I remain fully invested. However, if it is retested and institutions fail to support it, I will pivot to a more defensive posture. Risk management remains paramount.

Another potential tailwind: over $7 trillion sits in money market funds. A breakout to new highs could spark FOMO-driven inflows into equities, fueling further gains. Despite negative headlines, the trendlines tell a more constructive story—and they look promising. The strength in growth stocks reinforces my bullish stance.

Japan is currently monetizing its $7.8 trillion in debt at an unprecedented pace, triggering a selloff in its long-term bonds. Yields on Japan’s 30-year bonds have surged above 3%, the highest since 1999, while 40-year yields have reached a record 3.6%. The dilemma for Japan is apparent: continued quantitative easing (QE) weakens the yen and stokes inflation while tapering QE risks spiking yields and pressuring its banking system. Compounding this is a decline in overall demand for Japanese government bonds amid growing concerns about fiscal sustainability.

These developments have global implications. Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, owning more than $1.13 trillion. Rising Japanese yields may entice Japanese investors to repatriate capital, potentially reducing demand for U.S. debt and putting pressure on U.S. bond prices. If the carry trade unwinds, it could become a headwind for global risk assets, including equities.

To maintain demand for Treasuries, the U.S. may be forced to raise interest rates—an action that increases debt servicing costs and widens fiscal deficits. Alternatively, the Fed may resort to quantitative easing (QE), which introduces renewed inflation risk. With $10 trillion in U.S. debt due to roll over by July, managing yields is critical. The recent U.S. credit rating downgrade adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Still, geopolitical considerations—such as China’s constrained position—could help balance foreign demand.

We’re closely monitoring Japanese bond yields and their potential ripple effects across global markets. While the backdrop remains fluid, the primary trend in equities remains constructive—at least for now.

Grace and Peace to Everyone!

Watch List: AER, ALAB, APH, APP, AVGO, AWI, AXON, BTSG, CHEF, CHWY, CLS, CRDO, CRS, CTAS, CVLT, CVNA, CW, EQT, GEV, NFG, NWG, OSIS, PAY, PLTR, PWR, VIRT.

Greater love has no one than this: to lay down one’s life for one’s friends. John 15:13

If you know anyone who would like to receive these updates or invest, please contact me. 

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990! 

The S&P 500 recently pulled back to its 200-day moving average (200-DMA) and bounced higher following tariff announcements involving the European Union and Apple. This bounce off the 200-DMA suggests strong institutional buying interest at these key technical levels. However, if that support level fails, I’ll reassess my outlook on the market’s direction. I remain bullish, primarily because leading growth stocks continue to perform well.

Most of the names on my Watch List exhibit accelerating earnings and sales growth, coupled with chart patterns that reflect institutional accumulation. I’m fully invested but am considering trimming a few positions to potentially add exposure to the gold sector, which has shown relative strength. As U.S. debt continues to balloon, the gold market has attracted investors seeking a hedge against fiscal instability.

Meanwhile, both the U.S. dollar and bond prices are trending lower. This is unusual, as rising yields typically strengthen the dollar due to increased foreign investment. However, the persistent weakness in the dollar may suggest a deliberate weak-dollar policy. A weaker dollar and shrinking imports due to tariffs could boost exports by making U.S. goods more competitive abroad.

Animal spirits remain alive and well, as evidenced by continued inflows into Bitcoin—a signal that liquidity and credit are still abundant, which supports the ongoing bull market. Nuclear energy stocks have also come back into favor, and I’m monitoring the sector for lower-risk entry points. These companies could benefit significantly from the current multi-year AI data center buildout.

In summary, I remain bullish and expect the market to retest and surpass all-time highs, continuing the uptrend temporarily interrupted by DeepSeek and tariff uncertainties.

Grace and Peace to Everyone!

Watch List: AER, ALAB, APH, APP, AVGO, AWI, AXON, BTSG, CHEF, CHWY, CRDO, CRS, CTAS, CVLT, CVNA, CW, GEV, GWRE, HEI, NFG, NWG, OSIS, PLTR, PWR, SE, VIRT

May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace as you trust in Him, so that you may overflow with hope by the power of the Holy Spirit. Romans 15:13

If you know anyone who would like to receive these updates or invest, please contact me. 

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!    

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have posted five consecutive days of gains, with both indexes trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. While a short-term pullback would not be surprising, especially with resistance just 3% below all-time highs, the broader trend appears constructive.

Recent headwinds, notably the DeepSeek incident (1/27) and the tariff tensions (4/3), introduced significant uncertainty. However, the market seems to have absorbed the negative news, and those former headwinds now appear to be turning into tailwinds driving momentum higher.

One point of caution: Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt after Friday’s close, citing concerns over growing debt levels and projections that interest payments may reach 30% of revenue by 2025. This downgrade could catalyze short-term de-risking. Still, I believe the market has an underlying desire to move higher.

Junk bonds are sending a strong “risk-on” signal. They are trading above their rising 50-day moving average and are at all-time highs. Uptrending junk bonds suggest minimal credit market stress and a low likelihood of an impending recession.

Globally, markets breathed a sigh of relief as the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause in their tariff dispute. This cooling-off period may remove some of the emotion from the trade negotiations and allow space for a fair and sustainable agreement to be reached.

Meanwhile, gold and Treasury bonds remain in short-term downtrends, reflecting weakness in the U.S. dollar. Futures markets are currently pricing in 2–3 rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first likely to occur at the Fed’s September meeting. The market would likely welcome lower interest rates as they support economic growth and corporate profitability.

I remain fully invested, anticipating a continuation of the uptrend that DeepSeek and tariff-related volatility temporarily disrupted.

Grace and peace!

Watch List: AER, APH, AWI, AXON, BTSG, CASH, CHEF, CHWY, CRDO, CRS, CTAS, CVLT, CVNA, CW, CYBR, FICO, GEV, GWRE, HEI, LB, NFG, NWG, OSIS, PLTR, PWR, VIRT, WAY.

God opposes the proud but gives grace to the humble. John 4:6

If you know anyone who would like to receive these updates or invest, please contact me. 

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!

The S&P 500 moved sideways last week, holding steady after a strong 10% rally over nine days—a positive sign of strength and stability. The index remains above its 50-day moving average, though it’s still facing some resistance at the 200-day mark. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ 100 has tried to break through its 200-day moving average three times in the past six sessions, and maybe the fourth time will do the trick.

Markets digest the recent tariff news, and investor sentiment seems more optimistic. While uncertainty has lingered, we’re beginning to see more clarity, and new leadership is starting to emerge. The once-dominant “Magnificent Seven” stocks face challenges, but the AI space is heating up again following DeepSeek’s surprise announcement on January 27.

We’re seeing strength in AI-related areas like construction, software, and electronics, fueled by institutional buying, as shown by price gains on higher-than-average volume. The Fed kept interest rates steady last week, and the market responded calmly—another encouraging sign. Trade deals and rate cuts are coming, and that could be the catalyst to break through overhead ceilings of resistance.

Technology remains the leader in expected earnings growth within the S&P 500, projected to rise 18.1% over the next year, compared to 12.8% for the overall index. About 72% of companies have reported this quarter, showing a 12.8% year-over-year increase in earnings. It’s the second straight quarter of double-digit growth and the seventh with annual gains. Plus, 76% have beaten earnings estimates, and 62% have topped revenue expectations—above the norm. Sectors like tech, health care, and consumer discretionary stand out. BTW, US companies are buying back stock at a record pace!

On the macro side, the US dollar and Treasury bonds continue to trend lower, supporting gold near record highs. Bitcoin is hovering around $100,000, showing strong speculative interest, often a sign of a healthy market risk appetite.

I’m about 66% invested and plan to increase my exposure as momentum builds.

Wishing you lots of grace and peace!

Watch List: AER, APH, BAP, CASH, CRS, CTAS, CVLT, FCFS, FICO, GEV, GWRE, LOAR, NFG, NWG, OSIS, PEN, PWR, TW, VIRT, WAY, WELL.

Just as I have loved you, you also are to love one another. John 13:34

If you know anyone who would like to receive these updates or invest, please contact me. 

Dexter Lyons, Portfolio Manager
337-983-0676, ChristianMoneyBlog.net
100% BRI, Honoring God with Our Investments!
Actively Managing Risk Since 1990!    

The S&P 500 has now posted gains for nine consecutive days, the longest streak in over two decades—breaking through its declining 50-day moving average and approaching key resistance at the 200-day. This impressive momentum, especially following Friday’s GDP report, signals that the worst may be behind us and that the market is gearing up for a renewed push higher.

During the recent uncertainty around global tariffs, investors sought refuge in gold. But that narrative is shifting. Capital appears to be rotating out of defensive assets like gold and back into high-growth equities. I’ve exited my gold position and currently have around 65% of my portfolio allocated to stocks with strong earnings and sales acceleration. My screens are lighting up green.

Many of the names on my watchlist are breaking out of well-formed bases with powerful technical setups and outstanding fundamentals. This is the most bullish setup I’ve seen since before the January 27th Deep Seek black swan event that temporarily disrupted the AI sector. Deep Seek has since proven to be a pivotal development, allowing AI firms to scale faster and more efficiently. Analysts have recalibrated their valuation models accordingly, and investor confidence in AI is returning.

The AI boom is back, and the sector’s leading companies are again showing strength. We don’t need a crystal ball to predict the future—we need to observe the present. Price and volume action are often the earliest indicators of future earnings strength. And right now, the outlook is promising.

Wishing you and your loved ones lots of grace and peace!

Watch List: AER, APH, BAP, CALM, CASH, CTAS, CVLT, FCFS, FICO, GEV, GWRE, HDB, IBN, LOAR, NFG, NWG, OSIS, PEN, SFM, TW, VIRT, VRNA, WAY.

With man, this is impossible, but with God, all things are possible. Matthew 19:26